I produced a few of these throughout the 2008 election cycle, and the spirit moved me once again here in the midst of campaign silly season to go through each Senate race and provide some background to get a lay of the land. It will be useful in projecting the Senate landscape for January 2011. Since it's a lot to chew on, I'll split the analysis up by party, and the Democratic-held seats are up first. Here goes:
Summary:
Safe D: 5 (HI, MD, NY-A, NY-B, VT)
Likely D: 3 (CT, OR, WV)
D Favored: 0
Leans D: 4 (CA, NV, WA, WI)
Barely D: 5 (CO, IL, KY, MO, PA)
Barely R: 1 (NH)
Leans R: 2 (FL, OH)
R Favored: 3 (DE, IN, NC)
Likely R: 4 (AR, AZ, IA, LA)
Safe R: 10 (AL, AK, GA, ID, KS, ND,
OK, SC, SD, UT)
Key: Safe D = 95%-100% chance of D victory; Likely D = 85%-95%; D Favored = 75%-85%; Leans D = 60%-75%; Barely D = 50%-60%; Barely R = 40%-50%; Leans R = 25%-40%; R Favored = 15%-25%; Likely R = 5%-15%; Safe R = 0%-5%.